The iPhone 5 could help Apple double its market share in the smartphone category and come close to catching up with Android, according to a report by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.
Munster’s report is based on a survey of 216 mobile phone users. Some 64% of respondents said they plan to buy an iPhone as their next mobile device — and just under a third of those would-be Apple customers (29%) already own iPhones. The rest are mostly BlackBerry owners (28%) and Android users (17%).
Of the iPhone owners in the survey, 94% said they’d buy another iPhone; the rest would opt for Android phones. When it came to Android users, 42% said they’d switch to the iPhone. But the biggest group of defectors are BlackBerry owners: 67% of them plan to switch to an iPhone.
The two companies that carry the iPhone also have a lot of potential switchers in their ranks. Some 55% of Verizon subscribers who don’t have an iPhone expect to buy one; three-quarters of this group are waiting for the iPhone 5. Among AT&T customers, 53% are waiting for the next iPhone.
In part, Munster attributes the large number of potential iPhone buyers to the fact that it will be at least 14 months between the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 5 releases. Previous updates took 12 months. Munster predicts Apple’s market share could more than double throughout the next round of phone purchases.
Apple’s market share in smartphones for the second quarter was 19%, according to market research firm Canalys. Android’s share was 48%.