KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo issued an investor report on Apple over the weekend, and he doesn’t see the company showing a meaningful increase in iPhone or iPad revenues in the first half of 2016.
We revise down 2016F shipments of new 4-inch iPhone, as little new to offer. While the new 4-inch iPhone has been enjoying the media spotlight, we don’t regard the product as innovative, either in terms of form factor (similar to iPhone 5s, though distinguished by an upgraded panel cover glass from 2D to 2.5D) or hardware specs (with 6s as a benchmark, though a 12MP camera is higher spec than our expectation of 8MP). Moreover, considering the replacement impact on price cuts for iPhone 5s, we lower 2016F shipments of the new 4-inch model from 18-20mn units to 10-12mn units.
Kuo says he doesn’t see much of an increase in sales related to the release of the much-rumored improved 4-inch iPhone, or a new iPad Air 3, said to debut in March, and sees a slowdown in year-over-year sales of the iPhone 6s/6s Plus. He also isn’t placing much hope on the “iPhone 7,” due for a fall release. He does however, have a reason to be optimistic about new MacBooks, which he expects in the first half of the year.
We see MacBook as a stronger candidate for becoming a theme given solid growth in the business segment, as well as a potential upgrade to hit the market in 1H16.
In contrast, ever-bullish AAPL analyst Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray issued a report saying he sees AAPL stock RISING 50% in the months running up to the iPhone 7 launch.
“We are buyers of [Apple] going into next week’s earnings (Jan. 26) and over the next month based on a belief that over the next 6 months the stock will react similarly to past number change cycles (i.e., iPhone 5 and 6), and experience P/E multiple expansion,” said Gene Munster, senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray. Apple shares are poised for their best day in three months, recently trading up 3.7% to $99.89, after Mr. Munster, a longtime Apple bull, published an optimistic note on the tech giant Thursday night. The pop is a reprieve for Apple’s stock, which has tumbled 26% since its intraday peak of $134.54 in late April amid the broader market pullback and expectations of falling iPhone sales. It has underperformed the S&P 500 by 15 percentage points since its April high…
So, take your pick, no matter what your own personal outlook on AAPL stock, theres a report to fit your opinion on the matter.