If Microsoft is secretly readying its next Xbox to succeed the Xbox 360, then surely Sony must be working on a PlayStation 4?
Speculation has been rife that the next console battle will be fought around 2011-2012.
This is when Crytek's CEO Cevat Yerli and industry analyst Colin Sebastian believed that a potential Xbox 720 and PS4 could appear. But does the market really need another generation of hardware?
As Murray Pannel, Ubisoft's head of marketing in the UK, points out: "It would be nice [for the first parties to start talking about new hardware]... I don't think it's a requirement right here, right now, because there's enough new tech coming to the market... I genuinely think games can get better. Experiences can get more rich and varied, and the new platforms, Kinect and Move, can help enhance that."
But we want a new PlayStation!
Developers are usually the first to clamour for new consoles. Polyphony Digital boss Kazunori Yamauchi has bragged that Gran Turismo 5 goes "beyond the level of the current PlayStation." He went on to suggest that "the level of precision we've achieved [in GT5] is actually more suited to the next generation of machines".
Naughty Dog said that they 'maxed out' the PS3 with Uncharted 2.
While Halo creator Bungie has suggested that its has already pushed the Xbox 360 as far as it can go with Halo: Reach. Bungie.net community director Brian Jarrard told CVG that its next title is being "planned, engineered and designed to potentially span multiple hardware generations." That would include any potential Xbox 720 or PlayStation 4 that comes along.
Since the retirement of PS3 architect Ken Kuturagi in 2007, Sony has the opportunity to take a long look at the PS3's shortcomings and eliminate them for any future PS4. Valve's Gabe Newell famously raged to Game Informer that the PS3 was "a total disaster on so many levels" and that "Sony lost track of what customers and what developers wanted".
Sony can't afford to make the same multi-billion dollar mistake twice.
Motion gaming just a distraction
That said, you could argue that Microsoft is under more pressure to launch a next-next-gen console due to the lack of storage space on the DVDs it uses for its game discs. Sony, meanwhile, has the roomy Blu-ray format to play with, a gaggle of developers who finally understand how to program great games for its console, plus the promise that the PS3 will enjoy a 10-year life cycle.
That life cycle looks assured thanks to a new strategy of halfway-house upgrades. While Microsoft hopes to distract gamers with Kinect, Sony has been putting its efforts into developing PlayStation Home, the Move motion controller and 3D gaming. Even so, 3D games on the PS3 will only run in 720p (to ensure a smooth 60fps frame rate). For full 1080p 3D visuals, we're going to need a PlayStation 4.
Recycling PS3 for PS4
To imagine what a PS4 might be capable of we should look at what the current PS3 doesn't have or doesn't do well. For starters, Sony will need to closely integrate the hardware and software development for its next console.
According to SCEA's CEO Jack Tretton: "The hardware guys developed the [PlayStation 3] fairly independently, then dumped it onto the software guy's lap, effectively saying 'do something with it.'"
Considering that Sony spent around $3 billion developing the PS3, it seems likely that it will use an improved version of the Cell processor for a PS4. IBM has already released an improved version of the Cell for its blade servers. The PowerXCell 8i is a 65nm chip, with support for 32GB of DDR2 memory and eight fully-functional SPEs (compared to seven on the PS3).
The advantage of recycling the Cell is that Sony could retain a familiar development environment and use existing code libraries. The modular design of the Cell architecture could also allow extra Synergistic Processing Elements (SPEs) to be added to future chips. Twenty or more SPEs might be possible on a single 32nm Cell processor.
And if increasing the on-chip SPEs isn't an option in the proposed 2011-2012 time frame, then a PS4 could incorporate multiple Cell chips. IBM's Cell roadmap includes a PowerXCell 32iv, which appears to feature four PPEs (Power Processor Elements) and 32 SPEs, ie four Cell chips running in parallel.
Of course, this assumes that Sony will keep faith with the Cell and not opt for a multi-core processor that's a bit more, well, PC-like. The advantage for Sony would be that it would make the PS4 easier to program, eliminating the criticisms often flung in the PS3's direction.
In October 2011, a US analyst laid out the case that Sony is already in development works on the PS4, with a potential reveal at E3 2012.
Inside the PlayStation 4
If the PS4 is a revamp of the PS3, we're likely to see some obvious technology upgrades – 802.11n to replace the existing 802.11b/g chipset; an external power supply (to reduce the size of the box and to improve cooling); a massive hard disk; new graphics processor and an increase in the onboard memory.
The memory architecture in the PS3 splits 512MB equally between graphics and application use and it's been suggested that this limits developer freedom. You'd expect the PS4 to address this issue, giving developers more dedicated memory in which to load game levels. Although it's worth pointing out that the PS3 (and any future Cell-based consoles) can use the SPEs for maths-intensive tasks like physics.
New graphics processor
What about a replacement for the PS3's NVIDIA-built RSX graphics processor? We've already speculatedthat Microsoft could use Intel's general purpose Larrabee chip in its next Xbox to handle real-time physics and AI. Rumours also suggestthat Intel is pimping Larrabee to Sony for the PS4.
Like any Xbox 360 replacement, the PS4 is also going to have a much bigger hard disk. This will be in readiness for a wealth of downloadable content that will include games, demos, music, movies and TV shows. A terabyte HDD isn't out of the question. And in a world that will increasingly be looking to online services for content, does any PlayStation 4 still need a Blu-ray drive?
A PS4 without Blu-ray?
While the PS3 was instrumental in helping Blu-ray beat off HD DVD, there's a strong argument for dropping an optical drive from the PS4 altogether. Console owners are already downloading gigabytes-worth of game demos, video trailers, full-length movies and TV shows. With a giant hard disk in the PS4, games could simply be piped straight to the console on release day; long install/level load times would be eliminated.
Along with the Cell processor, the Blu-ray drive is one of the PS3's most expensive components. The PS3's high price has forced it into third place behind the Nintendo Wii and Xbox 360. Sony will be keen not to price itself out of the next console battle.
As Acclaim boss Dave Perry recently claimed: "Because of the cost of making the PlayStation 3 and because they sold it at a loss, Sony basically has pretty much no chance of making money on the PS3, because it's lost more money than they made during the entire peak of the PlayStation 2 – it's not going to happen again for Sony."
Sony can't simply slash its prices like Microsoft has recently. And Blu-ray is partly to blame. Billy Pidgeon, an analyst at market researcher IDC points out: "Blu-ray licensees would be threatened by pricing the PS3 below stand-alone Blu-ray players. The PS3 is a bit challenged on that side."
Chasing the dream of a digital hub
Do consumers really want a PlayStation 4 that does everything? Sony's next console needs to be a machine that plays the best games. Just like the PS2 did. The PS4 could go one of two ways – a premium all-in-one box that offers Blu-ray, integrated playTV and a much larger hard disk; or a pure games machine, stripped of its expensive technology in favour of mass market appeal?
Whatever the PS4 looks like, the final question to be asked is: when will it launch? Sony's Kaz Hirai has already given us a hint: "If you look at the history of the way we've managed our console business," he said, "we always try to hit a 10-year life cycle "
That might put any PS4 launch back to 2016. But when you consider that the PS2 is still chugging along in the shadow of the PS3, a PS4 could easily sit alongside and overlap the existence of the PS3.